Keep Throwing Spears

Every investor has a moment where they have to decide: trust the consensus, or throw the spear.

Giordano Bruno, a 16th-century Italian friar with a sharp mind and a big imagination, gives us a model to follow.

One day, he picked up an old Roman poem—Lucretius’ De Rerum Natura—and his life changed.

In it, Lucretius asks a simple question:“Imagine standing at the edge of the universe. You pick up a spear and throw it. What happens?”

Either the spear keeps going (which means the universe continues), or it hits a wall. But if it hits a wall, you could climb that wall and throw again. Over and over.

Which leads to a simple conclusion: the universe doesn’t end where we think it ends. It just keeps going.

Now, let’s rewind to the 1500s for a second.

At that time, the dominant view upheld by the Roman Catholic Church was that the Earth sat motionless at the center of the universe.

The heavens were believed to be perfect, crystalline spheres. The stars were fixed. The sun, the moon, and the planets orbited us. It was sacred and not exactly open to debate.

So imagine how well it went over when Bruno said:“Actually… the sun is just one star among many, the stars go on forever, and the universe is infinite. And the earth revolves around the sun, not vise-versa.”

Yeah. Not great.

Bruno was excommunicated. He was chased out of multiple cities. Eventually, he was arrested by the Inquisition.

When ten years in prison and torture didn’t make him change his mind, they burned him at the stake.

Now, let’s shift gears and talk about investing.

No one’s getting literally tortured for buying or selling a stock these days, but the figurative penalty for acting differently than the herd is still real.

It’s uncomfortable to challenge the consensus. It’s hard to buy when no one else is—when the company’s too small, too boring, or getting sold off.

It’s hard to hold when things get ugly. And it’s even harder to believe you’re seeing something real when everyone else thinks you’re not.

But that’s where the edge is.

Most investors stop at the accepted narrative:“This stock is broken.”“That business is too small.”“Everyone already knows that.”

But some investors—like Bruno with his spear—say: “What if that’s not the end? What if there’s more beyond?”

That’s where the alpha lives.

Like Bruno, you might not have a telescope. You might not have confirmation, yet.But if the logic holds—if the business is real, the grassroots reality tells a different story, the numbers make sense, and the story checks out—you’ve got something.

Bruno knew he was right not because he had evidence, but because he couldn’t break the idea. It held up to questioning. It held up to pressure.

And that gave him conviction—quiet, lonely, unshakable conviction.

The same goes for investors. You don’t need the crowd. You don’t need the confirmation. You need preparation, a well-tested thesis, a cool head, and a willingness to wait.And yes, you might look crazy for a while. Bruno certainly did.

But ten years later, Galileo pointed a telescope at the sky and proved him right.Galileo is that guy who buys the stock three years later—after it’s dropped 70%—and makes more than you in half the time.And it pisses you off, because you deserved that gain.

But timing matters. Of course, being Bruno means you carry the risk of being too early—and sometimes, being too early is the same as being wrong.

You have to be okay with looking like a fool. You have to be okay with being misunderstood. But you also have to be ready.

How to Know If You're Bruno—Or Just Wrong

Conviction and delusion wear the same clothes. The difference lies in the work underneath.

Here’s how to tell them apart:

1. Pressure-Test Your Idea Relentlessly

Ask: “Have I modeled this business under multiple assumptions?”

“What do the numbers absolutely require to be true in order for this to work?”

“Would I still believe in this if I had never read the bull case from someone else?”

If the idea holds up under intense questioning, you might be Bruno. If it only works when you cherry-pick or hand-wave, you might be wrong.

2. Seek Disconfirming Evidence

Bruno’s spear didn’t prove he was right—it helped him rule out the dominant theory.Try to disprove your thesis. If you can’t, and you’ve honestly tried, that’s where conviction is born.

Charles Darwin had a golden rule: whenever he encountered a new fact, observation, or thought that went against his theory, he made a note of it immediately—without fail. He knew from experience that the mind is far more likely to remember evidence that confirms our beliefs than that which contradicts them. And because he made it a habit to record and wrestle with dissenting ideas, he later found that very few objections came up that he hadn’t already considered. He even welcomed delays in publishing, because time gave him the distance to view his own work “almost as though it was of another person.”

3. Touch the Medium as a Compass

Before the telescope, Bruno had poetry and logic. You have something better: on-the-ground information.

What do employees, customers, competitors, or niche users know that the market has missed?Most of the best ideas start with someone noticing reality doesn’t match the stock price.

4. Apply a Few Mental Models

Inversion: What would it take for this business to fail? Is that already priced in?

Second-Order  and Third-Order Thinking: If X happens, what happens next? If this works, what chain reaction does it set off?

Survivorship Bias: Is the market judging this company against winners that had very different starting points or tailwinds?

5. Recognize the Galileo Window or the Catalyst

This is key. You don’t need to be first—you need to be early enough.Look for signs the telescope is coming: early adopters validating the product, cash flow beginning to stabilize, insiders buying or management signaling long-term confidence, disconnected valuation vs. actual user behavior or product traction.

If you can identify when the public lens is about to shift, you can position before the crowd arrives—without needing to be crucified like Bruno.

So, do the work. Question the assumptions. Trust your process. And when you’ve built something solid?

Keep throwing spears.When you hit a wall, adapt. If you don’t, hold on.

Because when the telescope finally points your way, you won’t just be right, you’ll be rewarded.

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